Netanyahu thanks voters as exit poll puts him ahead in Israel election

Former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has thanked voters for a “huge vote of confidence” as his right-wing religious bloc extended its lead with around half of all votes counted in the country’s fifth election in four years.

His Likud party did not perform as well as expected, but a surge in support for his new right-wing allies, the Religious Zionists, and a poor showing for two pro-Arab rights parties and the left wing Meretz party means he’s currently the most likely candidate to be able to form a government in the aftermath of Tuesday’s election.

Netanyahu’s main opponent, incumbent prime minister Yair Lapid, insisted that the race was not done yet, telling supporters on Wednesday morning that “until the last envelope is counted, nothing is over and nothing is final”. His broad anti-Netanyahu camp was set to win just 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up 20% of Israel’s population, were predicted to be a deciding factor in blocking the scandal-ridden Netanyahu’s return to office. This time around their vote was split among three different factions, meaning many votes were wasted.

Itamar Ben-Gvir: fiery far-right leader gains traction before Israeli election

Exit polls are preliminary, and final results could change as votes are counted. The vast majority are expected to be tallied on Wednesday and if Netanyahu and his allies are victorious, it could still take weeks of negotiations for a coalition government to be formed.

As with the four previous elections since 2019, Tuesday’s poll was largely a single-issue vote on whether the scandal-plagued Netanyahu is fit for office.

Speaking a few hours after the exit poll was made public, Netanyahu said that his right-wing religious bloc was on the cusp of a great election win.

“We are on the brink of a very large victory,” Netanyahu told supporters at his Likud party headquarters.

Prime minister Yair Lapid did not concede and told supporters that he would “continue to fight for Israel to be a Jewish and democratic, liberal and progressive state.”

“Until the last envelope is counted, nothing is over and nothing is final,” he said.

The night’s strongest showing was from Netanyahu’s new partners, the far-right Religious Zionists, which emerged as the third-largest party. The party’s top candidate, Itamar Ben-Gvir celebrated at an all-male campaign gathering in Jerusalem, where supporters waved Israeli flags and chanted “Death to terrorists.”

The Religious Zionists appear to be set for unprecedented success, with 13 or 14 seats, up from six in the 2021 vote. The surge in support for the right wing party might be what propels Netanyahu to a third term as prime minister.

Ben-Gvir, is a former follower of the banned Kach terrorist group, with a conviction for inciting racism. He has promised to support legislation that would alter the legal code, which could help Netanyahu evade a conviction in his corruption trial.

Netanyahu has faced accusations he gave preferential treatment to a major Israeli telecom company in exchange for positive articles on its news site, and that he received gifts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars from wealthy friends.

As a senior member of a right-wing coalition government, Ben-Gvir has said he would also lobby for the deportation of “disloyal” Palestinian citizens of Israel.

The apparent success of the far-right party sets the stage for possible conflict with Israel’s international partners. The US and the UAE have reportedly warned Likud that giving the Religious Zionists cabinet minister roles would damage bilateral relations. Netanyahu, however, has said such a choice cannot be made by outsiders.

The closing chapter of Lapid’s campaign had focused on urging voters to block the far right.

“These elections are [a choice] between the future and the past. So go out and vote today for our children’s future, for our country’s future,” he said after voting in his upmarket Tel Aviv neighbourhood.

Reuters contributed to this report