Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The lovefest for comeback star Ke Huy Quan continues after adding two supporting trophies to his mantle this week from the Gothams and the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle. Looking destined to be the critical darling of the season, he’ll be hard to root against as more awards are handed out, and he delivers moving speeches. Nine of the last 10 NYFCC winners for supporting actor received Oscar noms, with only Chadwick Boseman missing out for “Da 5 Bloods” (2020). However, he was still recognized posthumously by the Academy the same year for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Four of the nine NYFCC winners – Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) and Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) – took home the Oscar.
With “The Banshees of Inisherin” picking up steam for best picture and best actor for Colin Farrell, his co-stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could come along for the ride. Let’s see how far the Martin McDonagh dramedy can go on the awards circuit.
Brian Tyree Henry has been making the rounds at various Q&As and industry events. The 40-year-old Emmy nominee should already have an Oscar nomination by now (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), and he could be a packaged deal with his Oscar-winning co-star Jennifer Lawrence.
There are lots more nominations and precursors to be announced. We’ll see what shakes out next.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Ke Huy Quan | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
| 2 | Brendan Gleeson | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 3 | Barry Keoghan | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 4 | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients. | |||
| 5 | Brian Tyree Henry | “Causeway” | A24/Apple Original Films |
| A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | Judd Hirsch | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. | |||
| 7 | Ben Foster | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| A runaway slave forges through the swamps of Louisiana on a tortuous journey to escape plantation owners that nearly killed him. | |||
| 8 | Ben Whishaw | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. | |||
| 9 | Mark Rylance | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| “Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s. | |||
| 10 | Jeremy Strong | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Tom Hanks | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| 12 | Brad Pitt | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| 13 | Paul Dano | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| 14 | Woody Harrelson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| 15 | Toby Jones | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 16 | Micheal Ward | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 17 | Miles Teller | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| 18 | Andre Braugher | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| 19 | Glen Powell | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| 20 | Colin Farrell | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | David Lynch | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| 22 | Anthony Hopkins | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| 23 | Don Cheadle | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| 24 | Paul Dano | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| 25 | Harry Styles | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| 26 | Raúl Castillo | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| 27 | Bokeem Woodbine | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| 28 | Viggo Mortensen | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| 29 | Ben Aldridge | “Spoiler Alert” | Focus Features |
| 30 | Edward Norton | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story” | Netflix |
| All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
| — | Jim Carter | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Brendan Coyle | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Hugh Dancy | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Felix Maritaud | “You Won’t Be Alone” | Focus Features |
| — | Carloto Cotta | “You Won’t Be Alone” | Focus Features |
| — | Kevin Doyle | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Michael Fox | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Harry Hadden-Paton | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Robert James-Collier | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Allen Leech | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Dominic West | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Jonathan Zaccaï | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Aaron Hilmer | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Aaron Moten | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Adrien Brody | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Adrien Brody | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Albrecht Schuch | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Aldis Hodge | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Alessandro Nivola | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Alex Livinalli | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Alex Sharp | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Allan Corduner | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Andre Braugher | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | André Holland | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Andrés Almeida | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Andrew Scott | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Andy Serkis | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Anthony Edwards | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Anthony Hopkins | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Ashton Sanders | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Asivak Koostachin | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Austin Crute | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” | Focus Features |
| — | Barry Keoghan | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Barry Keoghan | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ben Aldridge | “Spoiler Alert” | Focus Features |
| — | Ben Foster | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ben Foster | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Ben Whishaw | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Benedict Wong | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Bill Irwin | “Spoiler Alert” | Focus Features |
| — | Bill Murray | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Bobby Cannavale | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Bokeem Woodbine | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| — | Brad Pitt | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Brandon Perea | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Brendan Gleeson | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Brett Gelman | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Brian D’Arcy James | “The Cathedral” | Hulu |
| — | Brian Tyree Henry | “Causeway” | A24/Apple Original Films |
| — | Britain Dalton | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Chris Pine | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Chris Rock | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Claes Bang | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Clarke Peters | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Cliff Curtis | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Colin Farrell | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Colin Farrell | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Colin Firth | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Conphidance | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” | Focus Features |
| — | Dave Bautista | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | David Dawson | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | David Denham | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | David Oyelowo | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | David Strathairn | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | David Wenham | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Derek Jacobi | “Allelujah” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Devere Rogers | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” | Focus Features |
| — | Devid Striesow | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Don Cheadle | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Don Cheadle | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Dustin Hoffman | “As They Made Us” | Quiver |
| — | Dylan O’Brien | “The Outfit” | Focus Features |
| — | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Edin Hasanovic | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Edward Norton | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Eric Ladin | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Ernie Hudson | “Prisoner’s Daughter” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ethan Suplee | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Evan Williams | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Frankie Faison | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Garret Dillahunt | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Gilbert Owuor | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Glen Powell | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Glen Powell | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Grant Harvey | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Gustav de Waele | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Gustav Lindh | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Guy Branum | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Harris Dickinson | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Harris Dickinson | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Harry Lloyd | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Harry Melling | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Harry Styles | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Igor Van Dessel | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Iker Solano | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Jalyn Hall | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | James Teeradon Supapunpinyo | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Jared Harris | “The Sea Beast” | Netflix |
| — | Jason Kravits | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Jaylin Webb | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Lambert Wilson | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Lucas Bravo | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Jason Isaacs | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Jeffrey Donovan | “Breaking” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Jeffrey Wright | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Jeremy Strong | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Jim Rash | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Joe Alwyn | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Joe Alwyn | “Stars at Noon” | A24 |
| — | Joe Jonas | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Joel Edgerton | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | John Boyega | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | John David Washington | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | John Leguizamo | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | John Patton Ford | “Emily the Criminal” | Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment |
| — | John Turturro | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | John Way | “A Love Song” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Johnny Dlynn | “The Outfit” | Focus Features |
| — | Jon Hamm | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Jonathan Pryce | “All the Old Knives” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Jonathan Tucker | “Palm Trees and Power Lines” | Momentum Pictures |
| — | Juancho Hernangómez | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Julian Glover | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Justin H. Min | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Ke Huy Quan | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| — | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Kenny Smith | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Kevin Nash | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Laurence Fishburne | “All the Old Knives” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Leslie Odom Jr. | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Luke David Blumm | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Luke Forbes | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Luke Macfarlane | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Malcolm McDowell | “Moving On” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Malik Yoba | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Manuel Garcia-Rulfo | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Mark Rylance | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Mark Strong | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Martin Freeman | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Matthew Duckett | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| — | Matthias Schoenaerts | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Matthias Schweighöfer | “The Swimmers” | Netflix |
| — | Michael Kenneth Williams | “Breaking” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Michael Shannon | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Michael Smiley | “The Silent Twins” | Focus Features |
| — | Michael Stuhlbarg | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Micheal Ward | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Mike Myers | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Miles Teller | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Miss Lawrence | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Morgan Spector | “Nanny” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Mortiz Klaus | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Nicholas Hoult | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Nick Kroll | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Nnamdi Asomugha | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Noah Emmerich | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Noah Jupe | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Norman Briski | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Oliver Jackson-Cohen | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Paul Dano | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Paul Dano | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Paul Gleeson | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Pedro Pascal | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| — | Peter Lanzani | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Peter Sarsgaard | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Rami Malek | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Raúl Castillo | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| — | Reece Shearsmith | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Reed Birney | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Richard Roxburgh | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Robbie Gene Bevins | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Robert DeNiro | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Robert Duvall | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Robert Duvall | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Russell Crowe | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Sahajak Boonthanakit | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Sam Nivola | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Scoot McNairy | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Scott Speedman | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Sean Patrick Thomas | “Till” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Sebastian Chacon | “Emergency” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Seth Rogen | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Shawn Mendes | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Simon Russell Beale | “The Outfit” | Focus Features |
| — | Sinqua Walls | “Nanny” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Stanley Tucci | “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Stephen Graham | “Matilda” | Netflix |
| — | Stephen Lang | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Sterling Macer Jr. | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Steven Yeun | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Taika Waititi | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Taylor John Smith | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Tenoch Huerta Mejia | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Theo James | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Theo Rossi | “Emily the Criminal” | Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment |
| — | Thibault de Montlembert | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Netflix |
| — | Thomas Sadoski | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Timothy Olyphant | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Tobey Maguire | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Toby Jones | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Toby Jones | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Tom Bateman | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Tom Burke | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Tom Burke | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Tom Hanks | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Tom Pelphrey | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Treva Etienne | “The Silent Twins” | Focus Features |
| — | Trevante Rhodes | “Bruiser” | Onyx Collective |
| — | Tui Thiraphat Sajakul | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Viggo Mortensen | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Ving Rhames | “Wendell and Wild” | Netflix |
| — | Weir Sukollawat Kanaros | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Willem Dafoe | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Winslow Fegley | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Winston Duke | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Woody Harrelson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Xavier Samuel | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Zen McGrath | “The Son” | Sony |
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
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