Ukraine War: Putin’s army stuck in mud like Hitler’s in 1941

Russia’s faltering offensive is getting bogged down in the mud as the “rasputitsa” spring thaw comes early to Ukraine.

Once frozen battlefields and snow-covered forests have transformed into impenetrable quagmires of thick sinking sludge as a result of the suddenly warmer weather.

The scenes around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut show roads turned into rivers and carefully cut trenches now full of knee-deep mud.

The conditions, a nightmare for most, will likely benefit Ukrainian troops hunkered down in their trenches defending the salt-mining town, the scene of some of the fiercest fighting.

Meanwhile, the Russian forces relying on rapid movement for their advances are already getting stuck in the mud.

“Both sides stay in their positions because, as you see, spring means mud. Thus, it is impossible to move forward,” Mykola, a commander of a front-line rocket launcher battery, said.

Moscow’s forces, aided by Wagner Group mercenaries, are desperately attempting to encircle the remaining Ukrainians in Bakhmut to force them to pull out.

Disregarding their heavy losses in a grinding, attritional battle, the Russians have slowly inched forward across a devastated, shell-scarred landscape towards Kyiv’s defensive lines there for more than six months.

Buț despite finding the battle “more and more difficult”, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has refused to surrender the town. Although reports suggest military planners are preparing a possible withdrawal.

However, buoyed by Russian casualty rates, sometimes close to 1,000 men in a single week of fighting, there is talk from senior Ukrainian military officials about the prospect of bolstering their forces in Bakhmut.

The spring thaw, which has a history of ruining plans by armies to attack across Ukraine, may have opened a month-long window for Kyiv to cement its position there.

The muddy season – known in Russia as “rasputitsa”, and sometimes nicknamed “General Mud” – plagued the advance of Hitler’s Panzers on Moscow in 1941, and is often credited for saving the Soviet capital from German occupation.

“The early part of the spring and thwarting ground will make life more difficult for the Russian attacks, especially those on foot, as heavy mud will slow them,” Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the 1st Royal Tank Regiment, said.

It will particularly hinder Russian efforts in Bakhmut.

Moscow’s forces have resorted to human wave attacks on the coal-mining town, sending troops, often convicts recruited by Wagner or unfortunate conscripts, stumbling through the mud of no man’s land towards Ukrainian trenches.

“Attacking Bakhmut in the mud will likely lead to more carnage for the Russians,” Mr de Bretton-Gordon added.

Elsewhere on the battlefield, Russian armour is expected to suffer a similar fate when confronted by the mud.

While no longer built like narrow-tracked Panzers of 80 years ago, Moscow’s fleet of tanks are particularly susceptible to boggy conditions because of their low-ground clearance.

More than a year ago, US intelligence officers reported that Vladimir Putin even delayed his initial invasion plans to wait for the ground to freeze.

The introduction of Western-made tanks, built much higher from the ground and less likely to get stuck, could just give Ukraine the advantage.

The change in weather also presents Kyiv’s forces with a number of other chances to gain an upper hand in their war against the Russians.

Clearer skies might enable Moscow to deploy its superior air power, but it will also make it more vulnerable to Ukraine’s ever-growing air defence shipments.

The mud should dry out and become packed hard as German-made Leopards and British Challengers reach the battlefield, which are expected to arrive at the end of the month.

Supported by a host of infantry fighting vehicles donated by its Western allies, Ukraine will be able to mount a Blitzkrieg-like ground offensive.

Night-vision systems will allow Kyiv to mount nighttime attacks, another advantage over their Russian enemy.

“It is likely that Ukrainian armoured strikes will look to bypass Russian positions and get behind them, rather than full frontal assaults to slug it out, which is the best the poorly-trained Russian troops appear to be able to do,” Mr de Bretton-Gordon said.