#US2024: How does Kamala Harris change the presidential race?

What’s happening

In the days following President Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, Democrats have rallied en masse behind Vice President Kamala Harris as their choice to succeed him as their party’s nominee.

 

In his statement announcing the end of his campaign, Biden urged Democrats to “come together” behind Harris as the choice to challenge former President Donald Trump in November. Party leadership, wealthy donors and rank-and-file Democrats followed suit, issuing a flood of endorsements that have made it appear all but certain that Harris will secure the nomination at the Democratic National Convention next month.

It’s been 56 years since an incumbent president who was eligible for a second term has chosen not to run for reelection. But Biden’s heavily-criticized debate performance late last month made long-simmering doubts about his ability to sustain a successful campaign impossible to ignore and inspired a pressure campaign within the party that eventually led him to step aside.

Why there’s debate

Biden’s exit and Harris’s emergence definitely change the presidential race in fundamental ways. But there’s a lot of disagreement on what those changes will really look like and whether a new candidate is enough to put Democrats on the path to beating Trump.

 

Polls of a theoretical Harris-Trump matchup taken mostly before Biden dropped out have shown Harris performing as well or slightly better than Biden. At least one poll taken since the president stepped aside has her ahead of Trump, but it’s too early for those surveys to fully reflect the impact of Harris becoming the actual nominee or how she might alter the race once she starts campaigning in earnest.

Harris has clearly introduced a jolt of enthusiasm into the Democratic Party, which for weeks had been mired in an internal debate over Biden’s candidacy. “This is an entirely new race with an entirely new tone,” one Democratic consultant told Politico. The shift isn’t just in vibes, either. Harris’s fundraising team brought in a record-breaking $81 million in donations in the 24 hours after Biden’s announcement.

One of her strongest assets may simply be the fact that she is not Joe Biden, whom a majority of Democratic voters did not want to seek a second term. At 59, Harris not only relieves Democrats of concerns about Biden’s age but creates the opportunity to make age questions an issue for 78-year-old Trump, who is now, thanks to Biden’s exit prior to being named as the Democrats’ official pick, the oldest major-party presidential nominee in U.S. history. Optimists within the Democratic Party argue that Harris’s relative youth and experience as a prosecutor make her well-equipped to make the case against Trump in a way that Biden couldn’t.

But there is also a lot of skepticism that Harris will be able to significantly shift the dynamics of the race, which polls showed Trump was leading before Biden dropped out. Some Republicans have said that Harris will be “arguably easier to run against” because they believe they’ll be able to tie her both to Biden’s performance on issues like immigration and inflation as well the more progressive policy positions she took earlier before she became vice president. Her critics also have serious doubts about her skill as a campaigner, pointing out that her 2020 bid for the presidency fizzled out before the first primary votes were even cast.

Perspectives

She turns age from a massive liability into an advantage

“She’s not 81, and she’s not Trump. For a lot of people, that’s all she needs to be.” — Michael Tomasky, New Republic.

Harris gives the Democrats hope that had been lost under Biden

“Two years of drift and decay has disappeared instantly into a blinding light of hope.” — Jonathan Chait, New York

Voters’ discontent with Biden will drag her down as well

“Her biggest liability is that she carries the policy legacy of the Biden years.” — Wall Street Journal Editorial board

She has the skills to make a clear case against Trump that Biden couldn’t

“Her most important attribute is this: She can prosecute the case against Donald Trump. Even before the Democratic nomination is formally settled, her presumed status as the frontrunner gives the 2024 presidential race an entirely new dynamic: the prosecutor against the convicted felon.” — Frederick Baron and Dennis Aftergut, Bulwark

Her poor performance as vice president will undermine her case

“Reviews of Harris’s performance as vice president, when she is visible at all, have been almost universally bad. She has remained largely under the radar since the beginning of the presidency.” — Hailey King, Washington Examiner.

Harris can draw in the exact kinds of voters Democrats need to win

“She brings genuine strengths. She may excite some of the young voters – especially young women – who turned away from Biden. She may inspire new energy among Black voters.” — Francis Wilkinson, Bloomberg

If Harris was really the candidate to beat Trump, Biden would have stepped aside long ago

“One of the big reasons why there wasn’t more of a concerted effort among Democrats to keep President Biden from running for reelection a year ago, when it would have been a lot easier, was the widespread perception that Vice President Kamala Harris was unelectable. Now, many Republicans are licking their chops about the prospect of running against her.” — Philip Klein, National Review

Harris isn’t a strong enough candidate to capitalize on the opportunity she’s been given

“Does anyone really believe Harris is the Democratic candidate most likely to block another Trump term?” — Jason Willick, Washington Post