With fewer than 100 days until America votes, the 2024 presidential race has officially been reset.
President Biden bowed out a little over a week ago. Democrats immediately picked Vice President Kamala Harris as their new de facto nominee. And now her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump, is returning to the campaign trail after surviving an assassination attempt earlier this month.
So what do the latest polls say? Here are four key trends that have emerged since Harris took Biden’s place at the top of the ticket:
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll — conducted when Biden was on the brink of ending his campaign — was one of the first to test Harris vs. Trump in this new environment. It showed them tied nationally at 46% among registered voters.
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll, which went into the field right after Biden’s damaging June 27 debate performance, put Harris (45%) 2 points behind Trump (47%). Biden trailed Trump by 2 points in that survey as well.
Subsequent national polls have confirmed Yahoo News’ initial finding: that Harris is reversing Biden’s decline and pulling even with Trump. The New York Times/Siena College survey, for instance, showed Trump leading Biden among likely voters by 6 points after the debate, 49% to 43%.
Now it has Harris at 47% to Trump’s 48%.
On average, Harris is polling a few points better than Biden was — while Trump’s numbers have remained the same. The result is a closer race.
Swing-state polls matter more than national polls; the path to 270 electoral votes runs straight through Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
But they’re also trickier to conduct, and they tend to take more time. So new numbers are hard to come by right now.
What data has surfaced, however, suggests a pattern similar to the national one: Harris on the rise.
Before Biden dropped out, most battlegrounds seemed to be slipping away from the Democratic candidate. Polling averages calculated by the New York Times showed Trump leading by 7 points in Nevada; 6 points in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; 5 points in Michigan; and 4 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump was even catching up to Biden in blue states such as Minnesota and Virginia.
Yet a new round of Fox News polls hints at an improved picture for the Democratic ticket. In Michigan, Harris and Trump are tied at 49%; the same goes for Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Harris (49%) trails Trump (50%) by 1 point; in Minnesota, she leads by 6 (52% to 46%).
Meanwhile in Georgia and Arizona, new surveys from The Hill/Emerson College show Harris still lagging behind Trump — but by smaller margins than Biden. Earlier this month, the president was down at 40%-41% in both Sun Belt states; Trump was at 47%. Now Harris is at 44% in Arizona and 46% in Georgia, while Trump is at 49% and 48%, respectively.
In other words, both candidates have gained a little ground. But Harris has gained more.
The biggest change since Harris replaced Biden as the de facto Democratic nominee has centered on favorable ratings.
In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted July 19 to 20 — immediately prior to the president’s withdrawal — 35% of Americans said they viewed Harris favorably compared to 46% who said they viewed her unfavorably.
Just one week later, Harris’s numbers had flipped: 43% favorable to 42% unfavorable.
The same poll measured Trump’s rating as 36% favorable to 52% unfavorable. Before dropping out, Biden’s rating had been 32% favorable to 55% unfavorable — even worse than Trump’s.
Harris’s numbers improved most among independents, who shot up from 28% favorable (before she entered the race) to 44% favorable (after she jumped in). In contrast, just 27% of independents viewed Trump favorably in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Again, the initial numbers hint at a similar trend in key swing states. According to this week’s Fox News surveys, Harris now enjoys a higher favorable rating than Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota; in Michigan, the two candidates are on equal footing at 49% apiece.
Biden was seen less favorably than both Harris and Trump in all four states.
Enthusiasm is the final piece of the polling puzzle. In February, the Monmouth University Poll asked Democratic voters how “enthusiastic” they were feeling about Biden as the nominee; just 62% said somewhat or very enthusiastic.
Trump’s number among Republicans back then? 80%.
Last week, ABC News/Ipsos asked essentially the same question about Harris. In that poll, a full 88% of Democrats now said they were feeling enthusiastic — higher than the 82% of Republicans who said the same about Trump.
Enthusiasm drives turnout, of course. But it could also pull some wavering demographic groups back into the Democratic fold.
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll offered some early clues about Harris’s appeal. Compared to Biden, it found her performing 3 points better among women, 7 points better among Americans ages 18 to 29, 7 points better among independents, 8 points better among Black Americans and 13 points better among those who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably (so-called double haters).
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