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#USDECIDES2024: What polls show about Tim Walz and JD Vance before Tuesday’s VP debate

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential candidate, is less popular among voters than his Democratic rival, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Both Vance and Walz entered the spotlight this summer as relative political unknowns. As both running mates prepare to address a huge audience in next week’s vice-presidential debate, Democrats are more positive about Walz and Vice President Kamala Harris than Republicans are about Vance and former President Donald Trump.

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The findings of the new survey reinforce the challenge for the Republican presidential ticket as voting begins in more and more states.

Vance is less well-liked than Walz

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The poll shows that negative feelings about Vance are considerably more widespread than positive opinions. About half of registered voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Vance, up from about 4 in 10 in late July, while around one-quarter have a somewhat or very favorable view of him, and a similar share don’t know enough to say.

Walz, by contrast, is better liked. About 3 in 10 voters have a negative view of Walz, while about 4 in 10 have a positive opinion and about 3 in 10 don’t know enough to say.

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That difference in favorability extends to the candidates’ bases. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters have a positive opinion of Walz, compared to about 6 in 10 Republican voters who have a favorable view of Vance.

Walz is stronger than Vance among men and women

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Democratic candidates tend to receive more support from women, while Republicans perform better among men. That gap is clear in Trump and Harris’ favorability numbers — but Walz is better liked than Vance among both men and women.

About 4 in 10 male and female voters have a positive view of Walz, while about 3 in 10 men and about one-quarter of women have a positive view of Vance.

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Walz also has a popularity advantage over Vance among voters over the age of 60. Half of voters in this group view Walz somewhat or very favorably, while about 3 in 10 have a similar opinion of Vance.

Walz is a little weaker than Harris among Black voters and women

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Despite his strength over Vance in some areas, there are also some key Democratic groups where Walz still has work to do. About three-quarters of Black adults have a favorable view of Harris, while roughly half say the same about Walz. She is also viewed more positively by women; about 3 in 10 women don’t know enough about Walz to have an opinion.

In general, though, neither of the vice-presidential candidates outshine Harris or Trump among major demographic groups, and they remain less well-known than the presidential nominees, even among groups that are traditionally part of each party’s base. For example, about one-quarter of white voters without a college degree don’t know enough to say about Vance, and around 4 in 10 voters between the ages of 18 and 29 don’t have an opinion on Walz.

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This means their popularity could continue to shift as their national profiles rise.

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The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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